Benjamin Cowen Discusses BTC Market Cycles, Compares The Current To 2013
According to Benjamin Cowen, a prominent cryptocurrency analyst and trader, Bitcoin’s future market cycles will be defined by two key trends: diminishing returns and longer cycles.
In a recent video Cowen shares with his 553,000 YouTube subscribers a chart that tracks historical BTC market cycles from their respective bottoms. The chart is likely to reveal a lot about future patterns for Bitcoin, he explains.
“We looked at this chart years and years ago, and our speculation was two things… First of all, we would expect we’re going to have diminishing returns. Second of all, we would expect we’re going to have lengthening cycles. Now, these two theories are not mutually exclusive, you can have one without the other, and if $64k does end up being the market cycle top, then rather than having lengthening cycles, we just had diminishing returns.
Now I’m still speculating that the cycle will ultimately lengthen and that we will ultimately take out $64k before we get to the next halving and whatnot. I think we’ll be able to put in new all-time highs if not this year, [then] next year, and I do think we’ll continue moving along the way. I don’t think we’re headed for a three-year bear market/accumulation phase. I’m not thinking that we’re heading towards that at this point.”
At the time of writing, BTC trades for $42,375 at time of writing, with 0.18% loss on a weekly chart, according to CoinMarketCap.
According to the analyst, this cycle so far, doesn’t follow what happened in the 2017 bull cycle, as BTC hasn’t reached a new all-time high (ATH) since April. Bitcoin climbed to new ATH in 2017, just before the market crashed in 2018.
“If anything, it looks more like 2013. This has been our argument all along, that it seems like it’s a stretched-out version of 2013.
“We had this lull in the market in 2013. We’re getting that same type of lull now. And then ultimately I hope we go in another leg. Do we have to go to $300k two months from now? Absolutely not. Just because that [steep run up] is exactly what happened in 2013, does not mean it has to happen exactly like that this year.”
