Analyst Benjamin Cowen Draws The Worst Case Scenario For Bitcoin (BTC)

A top crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen lays out his worst case scenario for Bitcoin as the leading digital asset struggles to reclaim $60K level.

In a recent video, the analyst looks into what he calls the “bull market support band,” which is a combination of the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) and the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA).

Once Bitcoin successfully retests the bull market support band, according to historical performance, it never goes below that price ever again, Cowen says. Last time Bitcoin found support at the bull market support band was when it bounced from $40,000 in October. According to the analyst, it’s very likely that Bitcoin will never visit below $40K again.

“Every time we hold it as support, we tend to not go below it, at least not on the weekly time frame. So that makes me believe that there’s a good chance that Bitcoin will not go below $40,000, because if it does, then I would argue that at point something is different, and it’s not looking that great.” 

Bitcoin’s last major correction from $52,000 to about $40,000 represented a 25% price fall. If Bitcoin was to duplicate the same 25% fall, BTC would bottom out at $51,500 level, which is right at the bull market support band, says Cowen.

“For now, we have the bull market support band that hopefully will help us hold the line. That’s where the bulls like to come out and hold the line. Even if we go below it, there have been instances in the past where we get right back above it the next week. If you want my opinion on the market, I think that there’s a lot of reasons people are bearish, there’s a lot of reasons people are bullish, but you take everything into consideration, I think that the market is leaning macro bullish not macro bearish.”