Crypto Analyst PlanB Predicts An 80% Correction After BTC Bull Cycle Peak

According to PlanB, one of the most well-known crypto analysts, Bitcoin will go through a rough bear market after peaking at the end of this cycle. His comments come after many analysts recently have turned to believe that the 4-year market cycles are over.

PlanB shared his thoughts in a recent interview on finance-focused YouTube channel FamilyOffice, saying that there are signals that tell him that Bitcoin will eventually sink into bear territory.

“First of all, I’m one of the few that indeed thinks that there will be a next bear market, a crash like we’ve seen a couple of times before. A lot of people right now are saying that we’re done with the four-year cycle, and we will not have that kind of volatility and that kind of deep bear markets anymore.

I think we will have those bear markets. You can see it in the option prices. It’s priced in at 100% volatility. A couple of months ago when China abandoned mining, we went down 50% or more. So we almost had it. We had a crash of 50% right there. So that tells me that 80% when something really big happens is not out of the question yet.”

Regarding the timing for the correction, PlanB believes it is likely to happen after Bitcoin reaches the price targets of his stock-to-flow (S2F) and stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX) models.

The stock-to-flow model predicts an asset’s price by dividing the supply that already exists with the new supply entering the market annually.

PlanB’s newer version of the original stock-to-flow cross-asset model (S2FX) takes a look at Bitcoin’s phase transitions from proof of concept to a financial asset in order to come up with a valuation for BTC.

PlanB said:

“I think we will have to go up quite a bit, at least to make the stock-to-flow model values of $100,000 and $288,000. But after that, we’ll go down 80% again… I guess that’s part of the deal, and it’s also part of the greed and fear that’s in investors. People won’t change.

There will be FOMO [fear of missing out]. If we for example hit the $100,000 level a couple of months from now… people will FOMO in, and it will go up. Then after that, something horrible happens: another ban, another China ban or India ban or something. Everybody’s scared again and the fear sets in. So I guess that fear and greed is never going away in Bitcoin.”