Raoul Pal Projects Crypto Growth To Outpace Early Internet Adoption

Investment strategist and the Founder of Real Vision, Raoul Pal, estimates that billions of new cryptocurrency users will join the space by the end of the decade.

In a recent video update on Real Vision’s YouTube channel, Pal looks into historical data comparing crypto’s growth adoption rates with the early years of the internet.

“Crypto adoption is now massively outperforming the internet. It’s been growing at about 165% a year versus 85% for the internet for the same period of time now. This is the fastest adoption of any technology in all human history.

We are going to get to five billion users by 2030, i.e., full-scale adoption of crypto is as technology for the Internet of Value and a host of other things.

And a billion users comes in 2024, lowering the rate of growth again. I’m not assuming that growth stays as red-hot as it has been. In fact, growth has been slowing.

I think that is the magnitude of what is happening. And you can own this, unlike the internet, it’s much easier to own because you own a share of the network by owning the crypto.”

The economic historian digs deeper into early-stage growth and projects unprecedented expansion as crypto outpace internet early growth later in 2022.

“The next chart shows it in a more dramatic way, which is not on a log scale. And we’re assuming the internet was growing at 43% a year from about year six.

Year zero in this case is 5 million users, we took crypto and internet users at 5 million and then looked at their growth as they adopted. After year six, the intent was growing 43% a year.

If crypto grows at 43% a year, it gets to year 10, which is four years’ time at 1.2 billion. But if it continues to grow at 76%, which is a lowering of growth, versus the 165% it’s doing now, we get to 2.8 billion.

These are astonishing numbers, the world’s never seen anything like this before. Whatever happens, whatever the trend rate of growth is, this is exploding, so the macro backdrop is massive.”

Pal, however, notes that the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is not growing at the moment. While the current state shouldn’t be considered a crypto winter, he cautions investors to be prepared for a bear market.

Network activity needs to pick up, in order to growing rates of adoption in the crypto industry.

“If I look at how we look at the network, total crypto volume has been trending sideways for a while now. Sideways volumes tend to lead to sideways markets, and that’s what we’ve had in crypto.

Volume has to grow over time to show network adoption, and we’ve not seen that.”