Bitcoin Options Data Signals Bearish Outlook For Coming Months

According to a widely-followed crypto analyst, one specific metric suggest a bearish outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) for the coming weeks.

In a recent video update, the YouTube channel InvestAnswers detailed that based on BTC options data, the bearish bets look stronger than the bullish bets for the contracts ending July 29th.

According to the analyst, the data from crypto options exchange Deribit shows that the volume expecting Bitcoin to fall to $25,000 and below has reached $165 million while the calls expecting BTC to hit $30,000 by late July stand at $63 million.

“The short-term outlook for July you can see here some calls, about $33 million on $40,000, which is a small bump. But a lot of very negative bets.

You’ve got $29 million on a $15,000 Bitcoin, $60 million on a $20,000 Bitcoin and $76 million on a $25,000 Bitcoin. And of course $30 million on where we are right now as insurance.

So this is extremely negative. Very, very concerning that people do expect another wick down or another double bottom.”

He also notes that options data shows that in the longer term, the outlook for Bitcoin turns more optimistic.

The call volumes betting on Bitcoin hitting $70,000 and above by December have reached $243 million. The put volumes expecting Bitcoin at $30,000 and below are at $95 million.

“As of December 2022, you can see here big bets. We have $64 million in Deribit bet on $100,000 Bitcoin by December, $101 million on an $80,000 Bitcoin by December and $78 million on a $78,000 Bitcoin.

And a couple of puts, $30,000 Bitcoin – $34 million, which is pretty much a little bit higher than where we are right now and $61 million on a $25,000 Bitcoin.

Remember people place these bets to protect their bags as well, buying insurance. But not a lot of put activity compared to the bullish activity onto the far right.”

According to InvestAnswers between now and late July, Bitcoin is likely to experience choppy volatility before making a recovery after the Federal Reserve provides more clarity on monetary policy.

“Expect bumpiness for the next, say eight to 12 weeks. Once we get through August, get some clarity from the Fed, because you know the Fed has handcuffs on us right now, then we will be able to bounce and move forward.”

At the time of writing, BTC trades at $28,916, down 2.6% on the daily chart.