Is the current strength of the Bitcoin market and select altcoins sustainable as we step into October? The recent temporary agreement reached by United States legislators on Sep. 30, averting a government shutdown for the next 45 days, might have catalyzed Bitcoin’s significant surge on Oct. 1. Furthermore, Bitcoin has historically performed well in October, which could have further boosted market sentiment.
October is typically favourable for U.S. stock markets as well. Historical data from the Stock Trader’s Almanac indicates that the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has seen an average increase of 0.9% between 1950 and 2021 during this month. However, it’s important to note that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, and October also harbours memories of the infamous Black Monday crash in 1987.
Although a short-term uptrend in the cryptocurrency markets is possible, it’s unlikely to trigger a runaway rally. Profit booking is probable at higher levels, given the significant rise in the U.S. dollar index (DXY), which could keep bullish investors cautious.
We must now examine the critical resistance levels in Bitcoin and altcoins that might attract sellers. Let’s delve into the charts for a detailed analysis.
S&P 500 Index (SPX) Market Analysis
The S&P 500 Index plunged below the formidable support at 4,325 on Sep. 22. That completed a bearish head and shoulders pattern, indicating the start of a downward move.
SPX daily chart. Source: TradingView
Usually, the price turns around and retests the breakdown level, which, in this case, is 4,325. That happened on Sep. 29. The neckline of the setup is likely to witness a tough battle between the bulls and the bears.
If the price turns down and breaks below 4,238, it will indicate that bears are in control. That could accelerate selling, and the index may dive to the pattern target of 4,043.
Any recovery attempt will likely face selling at 4,325 and then at the 20-day exponential moving average ($4,370). A break above this resistance will be the first sign of strength. The index could then ascend to the downtrend line.
U.S. dollar Index (DXY) Market Analysis
The U.S. dollar index has witnessed a scintillating run in several days. The bulls propelled the price above the overhead resistance of 106 on Sep. 26, indicating the start of a new uptrend.
DXY daily chart. Source: TradingView
Sellers tried to pull the price back below the breakout level of 106 on Sep. 29, but the long tail on the candlestick shows solid buying at lower levels. The Bulls will try to flip the 106 level into support. If they are successful, the index could rally to 108.
The bears are unlikely to surrender easily. They will try to drag the price back below 106 and then the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, it will trap the aggressive bulls. The index may then descend to the 50-day simple moving average ($103).
Bitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis
Bitcoin surged above the immediate resistance of $27,500 on Oct. 1 and then stretched the rally above $28,143 on Oct. 2. The ease with which $28,143 was conquered shows that more is likely to come.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls will try to push the price to $31,000, where they will likely encounter solid resistance from the bears. If the price turns sharply from this level, it will suggest that the BTC/USDT pair remains stuck inside the extensive range between $31,000 and $24,800.
The first support on the downside is $28,143, and then the 20-day EMA ($26,862). If the price slips below $28,143, it may trap the aggressive bulls. That could then pull the price to the 20-day EMA. Sellers will have to yank the price below this level to seize control.
Ether (ETH) price analysis
Ether pierced the 50-day SMA ($1,652) on Sep. 29 and followed that up with another sharp rally on Oct. 1, pushing the price to the overhead resistance at $1,746.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA ($1,644) has turned up, and the relative strength index (RSI) is above the 64 level, indicating that the bulls are in command. That enhances the prospects of a rally above $1,746. If that happens, the ETH/USDT pair will complete a double-bottom pattern. This setup has a target objective of $1,959.
Sellers will make every effort to halt the recovery at $1,746. They must drag the price below the moving averages to weaken the positive momentum. The pair may extend its stay inside the range for some more time.
BNB price analysis
BNB turned down the 50-day SMA ($216) on Sep. 29 and 30 but found support at the 20-day EMA ($214). This suggests a positive sentiment where dips are being purchased.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The moving averages are on the verge of a bullish crossover, and the RSI is in positive territory, indicating that bulls have the edge. A break and close above $220 will suggest the start of a new uptrend. The BNB/USDT pair could rally to $235 and $250.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from $220, the bears will again attempt to tug the pair below the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, it will indicate that the consolidation may extend for a few more days.
XRP price analysis
XRP rose above the symmetrical triangle pattern on Sep. 29, and the bulls held the retest of the breakout level on Sep. 30. This suggests that bulls are back in the game.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Buyers will try to drive the price to the overhead resistance at $0.56. This is a critical level to watch because a rally above it could indicate the start of a new uptrend toward the pattern target of $0.64.
On the other hand, if the price turns down from $0.56, it will suggest that the bears have not given up and continue to sell on rallies. That could restrict the XRP/USDT pair inside the range between $0.41 and $0.56 for longer.
Solana (SOL) price analysis
Solana blasted above the $22.30 overhead resistance on Oct. 1, indicating that the bulls are on a comeback.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The sharp up-move has pushed the RSI into the overbought space, suggesting that the rally may soon face resistance. The bears may attempt to stall the recovery at $25.50 and then again at $27.12. If the price turns down from this level, it will signal that the $14 to $27.12 range remains intact.
The critical support to watch on the downside is the 20-day EMA ($20.50). Sellers must yank the SOL/USDT pair below this level to weaken the bullish tempo.
Cardano (ADA) price analysis
Cardano soared above the downtrend line and the 50-day SMA ($0.25) on Oct. 1, invalidating the developing bearish descending triangle pattern.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Generally, the failure of a bearish setup is a positive sign as bulls who have been waiting on the sidelines jump in to buy. However, the price may turn down and retest the breakout level before that.
If the level holds, it will signal that the bulls have flipped the downtrend line into support. The ADA/USDT pair could start an up-move to $0.29 and, after that, to $0.32.
On the contrary, if the price turns down and re-enters the triangle, it will indicate that the markets have rejected the higher levels. The pair may then retest the critical support at $0.24.
Dogecoin (DOGE) price analysis
Dogecoin rose above the 20-day EMA ($0.06) on Sep. 29 and reached the 50-day SMA ($0.06) on Oct. 1. This shows that the bulls are trying to start an up-move.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA is flattish, but the RSI has jumped into the positive zone, indicating that the momentum is turning positive. A close above the 50-day SMA will open the gates for a possible rally to $0.07. This level may be a minor hurdle, but the DOGE/USDT pair will likely climb to $0.08 if crossed.
Time is running out for the bears. They must quickly tug the price back below the 20-day EMA to prevent the rally. The pair may then retest the crucial support at $0.06.
Toncoin (TON) price analysis
Toncoin’s relief rally fizzled at $2.31 on Sep. 28, indicating that the bears sell at higher levels. The price decreased, but the bulls held the $2.07 support on Oct. 1.
TON/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears renewed their selling on Oct. 2 and pulled the price below the vital support at $2.07. If the price sustains below this level, the selling could intensify, and the TON/USDT pair risks tumbling down to the 50-day SMA ($1.84).
On the upside, the bulls will have to drive the price above $2.31 to open the doors for a possible retest of the overhead resistance at $2.59. This level may again attract aggressive selling by the bears.
