The market price of Bitcoin reached a fresh high in 2023 on December 1st, and various alternative cryptocurrencies are following a similar upward trend. Could this signify the commencement of a potential Santa Claus rally in the cryptocurrency market?
Bitcoin experienced a notable 9% surge in November, encountering significant resistance at the $38,000 mark. Repeated efforts by buyers to sustain prices above this level have been met with relentless resistance from bearish forces. Historically, the month of December has produced mixed results. Data from Coinglass over the last five years indicates that Bitcoin saw a notable increase only in 2020, with an impressive rise of 46.92%. This year, the bulls will aim to replicate at least a portion of that remarkable performance.
As we approach the new year, several analysts hold an optimistic view of Bitcoin’s future. In a research note dated November 28th, Standard Chartered suggested that the potential approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds ahead of schedule could propel Bitcoin’s price to $100,000 by the conclusion of 2024.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz also sounded upbeat about Bitcoin while speaking to Bloomberg on November 29th. He said that the marketing team of asset managers whose ETFs are approved will try to convince people to invest in Bitcoin, which could boost adoption. Additionally, the Federal Reserve cutting rates may act as a further trigger that could send Bitcoin’s price near an all-time high by this time next year.
Could Bitcoin sustain above $38,000 and clear the path for a rally to $40,000, or will bears again play spoilsport?
Bitcoin (BTC) price analysis
The repeated retest of a resistance level tends to weaken it. After several failed attempts, the bulls kicked the price higher on December 1st. This indicates the resumption of the uptrend.
The rally above $37,980 completes an ascending triangle pattern. The BTC/USDT pair could rise to $40,000, again likely to act as a formidable resistance. If this level is scaled, the pair may reach the pattern target of $41,160. The rising moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI) above 65 indicate that bulls are in control.
This optimistic view will be invalidated soon if the price turns down and dips below the uptrend line. That could invalidate the bullish setup, pulling the price down to the solid support at $34,800. A break below this level will signal that the Bears are back in the game.
Ether (ETH) price analysis
Ether rebounded off the 20-day EMA ($2,019) on November 30th, indicating that buyers defend the level with vigour.
The bulls will try to push the price to the overhead resistance at $2,200. This remains the critical level to monitor in the near term. The ETH/USDT pair will complete an ascending triangle pattern if buyers bulldoze through. This bullish setup has a target objective of $3,400.
The 20-day EMA is the crucial support on the downside. A break below this level will be the first sign that the bulls are losing their grip. The pair may then decline to the 50-day SMA ($1,874).
BNB price analysis
BNB has been trading inside the tight range between $223 and $239 for the past few days. This shows uncertainty among the bulls and the bears.
The downsloping 20-day EMA ($234) and the RSI in the negative area suggest that the bears are in command. Any recovery attempt is likely to face selling at the 20-day EMA. If the price turns down from this level, the possibility of a drop below $223 increases. That may start a decline to $203.
Instead, if buyers shove the price above the 20-day EMA, the BNB/USDT pair may rise to $239. A break and close above this level could start a rally toward $265.
XRP price analysis
XRP has been clinging to the 20-day EMA ($0.61) for the past few days. This suggests that every minor dip is being purchased. It enhances the prospects of a break above the 20-day EMA.
If that happens, it will suggest that the advantage has tilted toward the bulls. The XRP/USDT pair may rise to $0.64 and later to $0.67. This level may act as a minor roadblock, but the pair may touch $0.74 if overcome.
Contrarily, if buyers fail to propel the price above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that sellers have flipped the level into resistance. The pair may then descend to the solid support at $0.56.
Solana (SOL) price analysis
The bears sold the rally to $62 on Nov. 29 and 30, but they could not sustain Solana below $59. This suggests buying at lower levels.
The upsloping 20-day EMA ($55.66) and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that the bulls have the upper hand. That improves the prospects of a rally above $62.10. If that happens, the SOL/USDT pair may reach $68. The bulls will have to defend this level with all their might because a break above it will clear the path for a rally to $100.
The immediate support to watch on the downside is the 20-day EMA. If this level cracks, the pair may tumble to $51. The bears must yank the price below this level to start a deeper correction.
Cardano (ADA) price analysis
Cardano has been taking support at the 20-day EMA ($0.37), but the Bulls are struggling to start a strong rebound off it. This suggests a lack of demand at higher levels.
The price has been squeezed between the 20-day EMA and the overhead resistance at $0.40. The gradually upsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI above 58 indicate that bulls have an edge. If buyers pierce the overhead resistance at $0.40, the bullish momentum may pick up, and the ADA/USDT pair may jump to $0.42 and subsequently to $0.46.
Contrarily, if the price skids below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest profit-booking by short-term traders. The pair may then slump to $0.34, where the bulls will try to arrest the decline.
Dogecoin (DOGE) price analysis
Dogecoin has maintained above $0.08 for the past four days, indicating that the bulls are not hurrying to book profits.
The rising 20-day EMA ($0.08) and the RSI above 62 indicate that bulls remain in command. Buyers will try to push the price to the psychological resistance of $0.10. There is a minor obstacle at $0.09, but it is likely to be crossed. Sellers are expected to mount a vigorous defence in the $0.10 to $0.11 zone.
The 20-day EMA is the crucial support to watch out for on the downside. If this level gives way, the DOGE/USDT pair may drop to the 50-day SMA ($0.07).
Toncoin (TON) price analysis
Toncoin has been sustaining above the 20-day EMA ($2.38) for the past few days, but the up-move lacks momentum.
The 20-day EMA slopes gradually, and the RSI is near 55, indicating that the bulls have a slight edge. Buyers will try to propel the price above $2.59 and complete the ascending triangle pattern. This bullish setup has a target objective of $3.58.
On the contrary, a slide below the uptrend line will invalidate the bullish triangle pattern. The failure of a bullish setup is a bearish sign, which could drag the TON/USDT pair toward the next significant support at $1.89.
Chainlink (LINK) price analysis
Chainlink’s price is squeezed between the 20-day EMA ($14.19) and the overhead resistance of $15.40 for the past few days.
The upsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive zone indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers overcome the barrier at $15.40, the LINK/USDT pair could climb to $16.60 and dash toward $18.30.
The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the 20-day EMA. That could start a decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $12.83. This level is likely to attract aggressive buying by the bulls.
Avalanche (AVAX) price analysis
Buyers pushed Avalanche above the $22 resistance on December 1st, indicating higher-level solid demand.
If the price closes above $22, it will increase the likelihood of a rally to $24.69. Sellers are expected to mount a vigorous defence at this level because a break above it could open the doors for a potential rally to $28.50.
Bears must quickly pull the AVAX/USDT pair back below the 20-day EMA ($19.80) if they want to halt the uptrend. That may trigger stops of several short-term traders, resulting in a drop to $18.90.
