In the first quarter of 2024, The Bitcoin Market and specific alternative cryptocurrencies experienced significant increases in value, but there is potential for a downturn shortly.
During the initial three months of 2024, high-risk investments saw notable gains. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) surged by 10.2%, marking its most robust first-quarter performance since 2019, while Bitcoin soared by almost 69%. The question arises: will this upward trend persist in the second quarter, or is it time to consider taking profits?
Investor optimism persists regarding Bitcoin’s outlook for the upcoming quarter. Anticipation of heightened institutional interest in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and the impact of Bitcoin’s halving is contributing to this positive sentiment.
Traders need to be careful after the strong Q1 performance because nothing goes up in a straight line. Bull markets are known for their sharp corrections, which shake out the late entrants. However, the dips offer a low-risk buying opportunity to the long-term investors.
What are the essential support levels to watch out for in Bitcoin and altcoins? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
S&P 500 Index (SPX) Market Analysis
The S&P 500 Index bounced off the support of the ascending channel pattern and made a new all-time high on March 28, indicating that the uptrend remains intact.
While the upsloping moving averages indicate that the bulls are in control, the negative divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) cautions of a possible correction or consolidation in the short term.
The first sign of weakness on the downside will be a break and close below the 20-day exponential moving average (5,176). If that happens, the stops of several traders may get hit, and the index could plummet to the 50-day simple moving average (5,055).
Buyers will have to kick the price above the channel to maintain control. That could start an upmove toward 5,450.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Market Analysis
The U.S. dollar Index has been gradually increasing and reached the crucial overhead resistance 105.
The upsloping moving averages and the RSI near the overbought territory show that the bulls have the upper hand. If buyers overcome the obstacle at 105, the index could start up to 106 and eventually to 107.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from 105, the index could slip to the 20-day EMA (104). If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the possibility of a rise above 105 increases, but if the index breaks below the moving averages, it will open the doors for a possible fall to 102.50.
Bitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis
The bulls are finding it challenging to push Bitcoin above $71,770, and today’s correction proves that bears are not ready to let go.
Tight-range trading is likely to break out soon, but it is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout with certainty. If the price slumps below the 20-day EMA, short-term traders may book profits, pulling the BTC/USDT pair to the 50-day SMA ($62,430).
On the other hand, if the price turns up and breaks above the $71,770 to $73,777 zone, it will signal the start of the next leg of the uptrend. The pair could then resume its march toward $80,000.
Ether (ETH) Market Analysis
Ether has been struggling to rise and maintain above the immediate resistance at $3,679, indicating that the bears are trying to gain the upper hand.
The bears will try to exploit the situation and sink the price below the 50-day SMA ($3,386). If they do that, the selling is likely to pick up, and the ETH/USDT pair could skid to $3,250 and subsequently to the critical support at $3,056.
If the bears want to prevent the decline, they must propel the price above $3,679. That could open the doors for a possible retest of $4,000. This level may again act as a significant hurdle, but if the bulls prevail, the pair could reach $4,500.
BNB Price Analysis
BNB turned down from $620 on March 29 and fell to the 20-day EMA ($562) on April 1, suggesting profit booking by the short-term traders.
The 20-day EMA is an essential support to watch because a break and close below it could sink the BNB/USDT pair to $496. Buyers are expected to defend this level aggressively.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the sentiment remains positive and traders are buying the dips. The bulls will then make another attempt to push the price to $645. A break above this level could catapult the price to $692.
Solana (SOL) Price Analysis
Solana again turned down from the overhead resistance of $205 on April 1, indicating aggressive selling at the level.
The SOL/USDT pair could reach the 20-day EMA ($180), which is an essential support to watch. If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls continue to buy the dips. That will enhance the prospects of a break above $205. If that happens, the pair may resume the uptrend and rally toward $267.
Instead, if the price continues lower and plunges below the 20-day EMA, it will signal that the bulls are rushing to the exit. The pair may then drop to the 50-day SMA ($147).
XRP Price Analysis
XRP’s price action of the past several days has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating indecision between the bulls and the bears.
The flattish 20-day EMA and the RSI just below the midpoint do not clearly advantage either the buyers or the sellers. The bulls will have to push the price above the triangle to suggest the start of an up move to the formidable resistance at $0.74.
Alternatively, if the price continues lower and breaks below the triangle, it will indicate that the bears are trying to take charge. The selling could pick up below the uptrend line, and the XRP/USDT pair could dive to $0.52.
Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Analysis
The bulls are trying to flip Dogecoin’s $0.19 level into support but are struggling to push the price above $0.23.
The bears will try to exploit the situation and sink the DOGE/USDT pair below the 20-day EMA ($0.18). If they do that, the selling could pick up, and the pair may plunge to the next significant support at the 50-day SMA ($0.14).
On the contrary, if the price turns up and breaks above $0.23, it will suggest that the bulls are trying to resume the uptrend. The pair could then attempt a rally to $0.30, where they may again face resistance from the bears.
Cardano (ADA) Price Analysis
Cardano’s failure to rise above the $0.68 resistance in the past few days shows that the bears are active at higher levels.
The bears pulled the price below the immediate support at $0.63 and will try to extend the decline to the solid support at $57. If the price rebounds off $0.57, it will suggest that the ADA/USDT pair may remain range-bound between $0.57 and $0.68 for a while.
If the price plummets below the critical support at $0.57, the pair will complete a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. That may signal the start of a deeper correction to $0.46. The bulls must kick the price above $0.68 to return to the driver’s seat.
Avalanche (AVAX) Price Analysis
The Bulls managed to keep Avalanche above the 20-day EMA ($53) in the past few days but failed to start a strong rebound. This suggests a lack of aggressive buying by the bulls.
Selling picked up on April 1, and the bears pulled the AVAX/USDT pair to $50 support. This is a crucial level to watch because a break below it could accelerate selling and pull the pair to $42.
This negative view will be invalidated soon if the price rises and breaks above the downtrend line. The pair could rise to $60 and attempt a rally to the overhead resistance at $65.
