The Bitcoin market is expected to maintain a narrow trading range for a few days as market participants struggle for dominance ahead of the halving.
The cryptocurrency is currently consolidating within an upward trend, reflecting a battle between bullish and bearish forces. The short-term advantage seems to lie with the bears, given historical trends showing a typical 8.33% decrease in Bitcoin prices during the 14th week of the year, as per Coinglass data.
During this period of Bitcoin’s price stability, traders are likely to monitor the performance of spot Bitcoin-exchange closely traded funds (ETFs), which have been influential in driving prices. A comparison with March, when trading volumes experienced a significant increase, could be insightful.
According to Eric Balchunas, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg, spot Bitcoin ETF trading volumes surged from $42.2 billion in February to $111 billion in March.
However, Bitcoin’s halving approach increases uncertainty. Independent analyst Rekt Capital believes the pullback is part of the pre-halving retrace that resulted in a 38% drop in 2016 and 20% in 2020.
What are the critical levels to watch out for in Bitcoin and altcoins? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis
The bulls’ repeated failure to propel the price above $71,770 may have tempted the short-term traders to give up. That sent the price tumbling below the 20-day exponential moving average ($67,646) on April 2.
The 20-day EMA has flattened out, and the relative strength index (RSI) is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. This equilibrium could tilt in favour of the bears if the price skids below the 50-day simple moving average ($63,098). That could open the doors for a drop to $59,000 and subsequently to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $54,298.
On the other hand, if the price rises from the current level and rises above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the BTC/USDT pair may stay range-bound for some time. The bulls will have to shove the price above the $71,770 to $73,777 resistance zone to signal the start of the next leg of the uptrend to $80,000.
Ether (ETH) Market Analysis
The Ether market tumbled below the 50-day SMA ($3,414) on April 2, opening the doors for a retest of the March 20 low of $3,056.
The 20-day EMA ($3,493) has started to turn down, and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating that the Bears have the upper hand. If the price breaks below $3,056, the selling could pick up, and the ETH/USDT pair may collapse to $2,700.
Bulls must push the price back above the moving averages if they want to prevent the fall. That will suggest a range-bound action between $3,056 and $3,679. A break and close above $3,679 will indicate that bulls are back in the driver’s seat. The pair may then rise to $4,100.
BNB Market Analysis
BNB slipped below the 20-day EMA ($561) on April 2, indicating the bullish momentum is weakening.
The 20-day EMA is flattening out, and the RSI is just above the midpoint, indicating a range-bound action in the near term. If the price rises from the current level, it could increase to the downtrend line.
Conversely, if the price continues lower and breaks below $535, the next stop will likely be $495. This level may be strong support, but if the bears prevail, the decline could extend to the breakout level of $460.
Solana (SOL) Price Analysis
Solana fell to the 20-day EMA ($181) on April 2, but the sharp rebound on April 3 shows the sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on dips.
The bulls will again try to overcome the barrier at $205. If they succeed, the SOL/USDT pair could signal the start of the next leg of the uptrend. The pair may rally to $243 and later to $260.
However, if the price again turns down from $205, it will indicate that the bears are fiercely defending the level. That increases the possibility of a drop below the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the short-term traders may dump their positions, pulling the pair to the 50-day SMA ($150).
XRP Price Analysis
XRP remains stuck inside the extensive range between $0.46 and $0.74. The price fell below the uptrend line on April 1, indicating that the bears are trying to take charge.
The bulls have not given up and are trying to start a relief rally, which is likely to face selling at the 20-day EMA ($0.61). If the price turns down from this resistance, the likelihood of a drop below $0.56 increases. The XRP/USDT pair could then slump to $0.52.
Instead, if buyers drive the price above the 20-day EMA, it will signal solid buying at lower levels. The pair could then rise to $0.69 and eventually to $0.74, which remains the critical resistance to cross.
Cardano (ADA) Price Analysis
Sustained selling pressure has pulled Cardano to the strong support at $0.57. Buyers are expected to defend this level vigorously.
If the price rebounds off the $0.57 level, it will likely face selling at the 20-day EMA ($0.64). If the price turns lower from the 20-day EMA, it will increase the possibility of a drop below $0.57. That will complete a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, which could clear the path for a fall to the critical support at $0.46.
Contrarily, if the price turns up and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the ADA/USDT pair may consolidate between $0.57 and $0.68 for a while. A rise above $0.68 indicates the corrective phase may be over.
Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Analysis
Dogecoin turned down sharply on April 2 and nosedived below the breakout level of $0.19, signalling that the traders are aggressively booking profits.
The DOGE/USDT pair continued lower and slipped below the 20-day EMA ($0.18) on April 3, but the long tail on the candlestick shows solid buying at lower levels. If the buyers push the price back above $0.20, it will suggest that the correction may be over. The bulls will then try to challenge the overhead resistance at $0.23.
On the contrary, if the price turns down and maintains below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that every minor rally is being sold. The pair may then slump to the 50-day SMA ($0.14).
Avalanche (AVAX) Price Analysis
The failure to rise above the downtrend line accelerated selling, and Avalanche plunged below the breakout level of $50 on April 2.
The selling continued, and the AVAX/USDT pair dropped below the 50-day SMA ($47) on April 3. Buyers are trying to defend the 50-day SMA, but the recovery will likely face selling at the 20-day EMA.
If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will increase the likelihood of a break below the 50-day SMA. The pair could then retest the crucial support at $42. This bearish view will be invalidated on a break and close above the downtrend line.
Shiba Inu (SHIB) Price Analysis
Shiba Inu fell below the 20-day EMA ($0.000028) on April 2, indicating that the bears remain active at higher levels.
The SHIB/USDT pair could drop to the 50-day SMA ($0.000023), which will likely be a solid support. If the price rebounds off this level, the bulls will attempt to push the pair to $0.000033. A break and close above this level will be the first sign that the Bulls are on a comeback. The pair may then attempt a rally to $0.000039.
Instead, if the price plummets below the 50-day SMA, it will suggest the start of a deeper correction toward $0.000017.
Toncoin (TON) Price Analysis
Toncoin (TON) reached the 20-day EMA ($4.63) on April 3, an important level to monitor.
If the rebound off the 20-day EMA sustains, it will suggest that traders continue to buy at lower levels. That could keep the TON/USDT pair stuck inside a range between the 20-day EMA and $5.69 for some time.
Alternatively, if the price turns down and plummets below the 20-day EMA, it will signal that the bulls are booking profits quickly. That could sink the pair to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $4.22.
