Analyst Nicholas Merten Looks Into BTC Worst Case Scenario
Despite the latest crypto market downturn, analyst Nicholas Merten remains an optimistic view on the future price of Bitcoin (BTC).
In a recent strategy session, Merten shared with his 510K subscribers on YouTube that the news events and headlines aren’t telling the whole story why the price of Bitcoin is going down.
“What’s dragging down Bitcoin’s price here, in regards to the market? Well first off, let’s just go ahead and accept that even though there are some headline reasons…
It is a matter of people selling their Bitcoin on the market. It doesn’t always have to with the headlines, the news events… It can be people doing short-term trades or whales playing their games and driving price one way or the other.”
According to the analyst, looking into the worst case scenario, BTC could drop even lower, even another 25% from the current prices.
“We’ve really got a chance here, and I’ll say it more than I think most people will, that we might have gotten it wrong here, and prices might roll back down to this range (~$30,000). I think that’s the worst-case scenario here for crypto, that we come back down to this consolidation range, kind of like we did back in June 2021, even though we had a more heightened breakout in prices.”
However, if BTC pulls back to $30,000 range, Merten notes that investors should not panic and start selling their coins.
“I’m going to go ahead and make something very clear here no matter whether or not we get that pullback down to the $30k range or the $30,000-$35,000 range… Or, if I’m wrong about that and we just continue to break out here and we see an imminent rally in the market – no matter how it plays out, this is not some kind of reason to go out and sell all your crypto. I think that’s the thing that’s been on everyone’s mind. It’s been on the minds of many people because there just hasn’t been that kind of surge.
I think we got a little bit spoiled. We got sugar-coated from the January 2021 rally, going into March and April where Dogecoin was going to the moon [and] everything was going up. Everything was so exciting and grand and awesome, nothing could go wrong, crypto was in the spotlight. And now everyone is worried the Fed saying all these things, the geopolitical conflicts, equity markets are pulling back…
Everyone can give you different perspectives, but one of the best things you can do is historical analysis when it comes to crypto and see whether or not we’re at a typical drawdown range where it’s time to still look for more downside or are we at a potential buy opportunity. Or we’re at a potential holding out period.
You’ve got the three different sentiments – you’ve got buying, selling, and sometimes just holding it out. Waiting. Not doing anything. Not panicking, whether it be panic buying or panic selling and definitely not trading with leverage or doing silly stuff when the market is really inconsistent like this. Sometimes it’s just best to hold it out, give it some time, and, most importantly, set your expectations to be level-headed.”
How BTC behaves on short term is difficult to predict, but on the longer term the trend is still bullish, according to Merten.
“My biggest point I want to drive to you guys is to follow the general chart here – we believe that by sometime going into April and May, that’s when we could start to revisit the all-time highs. It might be that we continue to chop here sideways for a little while we play catch up in the near term.
But again, when we talk about the idea that we could see a breakout, we’re focusing on going into the next preceding weeks and months. We believe that Bitcoin is going to have that setup it can start to charter higher. But, at the same time, it might take a little longer than we predicted.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $40,152, down 1.5% on the daily time frame.
