Analysts Predict Wild Ride For The Next 60 Days For Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC could be retesting the lows of its current range in the near term, as its price trends to the downside. At the time of writing, BTC’s trades at $33,158 with 3.12% loss in the daily range. There is very certainty for investors if these levels will hold as bulls seem to lack conviction in lower timeframes.
Bitcoin has been trading sideways lately. The top crypto has experienced less volatility than previous months with continual compression, at least, in the daily and weekly charts.
Trader Josh Rager set $36,000 as a critical price mark for the market to regain confidence. While, other traders expect $31,000 to be a critical area of support that could prevent further downside.
Analyst Allen Au noted a pattern in BTC’s bull phases for 2013, 2017, and the current price action. The analyst believes that after a 60-day period, BTC’s price volatility has reduced from V1 to V2, as seen in the chart below.
Observation: During past #BTC's bull phases, after BTC's 60-day volatility rose above V1 & fell back to V2 or below, BTC's price would go up. This happened in the 2013 & 2017 bull phases.
BTC's 60-day volatility has recently pierced through V1 & fallen back to V2. What's next? pic.twitter.com/AwNlJwQBYF
Au believes this phenomenon has repeated in this bull phase. Thus, as in the past, the analyst expects BTC’s price to increase. In 2013 and 2017, this upwards movement led Bitcoin to its previous highs and marked the end of those years’ bull cycles.
A trader known as ‘Income Sharks’ said that current market conditions benefit the bears. In order to resume the bull-run, these two market components must change, the trader tweeted:
$BTC – Second time getting a 4h Supertrend rejection. With volume this low and lower volatility it tends to favor more downside. Higher volume and volatility favors upside. pic.twitter.com/0eZem14FRP
“Second time getting a 4h Supertrend rejection. With volume this low and lower volatility it tends to favor more downside. Higher volume and volatility favors upside.“
Calm Before The Storm for BTC?
Many market experts think Bitcoin is getting ready for a big move either up to previous highs or down below its yearly open. Analyst known as ‘Checkmate’ from Glassnode Insights has recorded an increase in activity in the spot and derivatives market and on-chain metrics.
Together with a change in the number of Bitcoin deposited into exchange platforms, the first cryptocurrency by market cap might come out of its current range. In May, exchanges saw a rise in their BTC reserves, as selling pressure increased.
According to Glassnode’s Net Transfer Volume from Exchanges for the past two weeks, this trend could be reversing. During this period, there have been more “positive” exchange outflows with around 2,000 BTC leaving these platforms every day.
Source: Glassnode Insights
Bitcoin-based derivates have stayed relatively quiet after May’s “Great leverage flush back”, Checkmate noted. He claimed the following:
Since the sell-off in May, futures open interest has remained bound between $10.7B and $13.0B with only a handful of notable builds or declines within that range. Open interest remains 57% below the ATH set in April as Coinbase went public.
Source: Glassnode Insights
Also, volume in the derivates sector has been going down. Bitcoin could have more room to recover, as there is less leverage at play to impact the market. Experts are yet divided on future price actions, but they agreed that a big move is forming.
