Benjamin Cowen Updates His Bitcoin And Altcoin Outlook For Q1

A top crypto market analyst, Benjamin Cowen is looking into where Bitcoin (BTC) is at the moment as Q1 of 2022 hits halfway point. He also estimates the altcoin market could take off.

In a recent video, Cowen shared his 712K subscribers on YouTube that the Q1 outlook for Bitcoin doesn’t look great.

“My general outlook for Q1 is bearish for Bitcoin, or neutral at best.
The best-case scenario I can imagine would be Bitcoin closing Q1 at around the place that it opened, so around $46,000.
I’m not talking about Q3 or Q2 or Q4, I’m talking about Q1.”

He lists macroeconomic factors that he is currently looking into that have influence on Bitcoin, and also the wider crypto market.

“I see quantitative tightening, we see a lot of macroeconomic uncertainty, we see the dollar still above its own bull market support band.
We see Bitcoin below its bull market support band. I cannot look at those conditions and say that it’s the best scenario for altcoins. And the reason I say that is not to make you feel bad, but I have to be honest and say look, this is just the way it is.
Right now altcoins are very fragile when Bitcoin’s below the bull market support band, potentially because of all this economic uncertainty, and also the Nasdaq and the stock market. The S&P has been selling off recently.”

The analyst lays out the ideal scenario for altcoins, and how Bitcoin impacts it.

“Altcoins do the best when Bitcoin is going sideways above its bull market support band, like of 2020 or in early 2021 or in later 2021.”

Cowen also talks about altseason and if investors should expect to see altcoins going up any time soon.

“If Bitcoin were to drop another 10% or 20%, then the altcoin valuations against the US dollar would likely take out their prior lows, back when Bitcoin was at $33,000.
The reason it’s important to think about that is… if you’re looking to allocate capital into cryptocurrency… you should consider the potential scenario where Bitcoin remains below its bull market support band.
If it does, then we’re not likely to see an altseason immediately.”

If best case scenario was to happen to Bitcoin and it surpasses the bull market support band, the analyst believes that altcoins would still take some time to rally.