Credible Crypto Digs Into Why The Bull Market Top Could Be Months Away
A top crypto market analyst and trader known as Credible Crypto, believes that the current bull cycle top is still far away, on the contrary to many other analysts who believe that Bitcoin will top out before the year ends.
In a new video, a well-known pseudonymous analyst, Credible Crypto explains how many market analysts are looking the charts and calling the fifth wave of Elliott Wave theory this cycle to happen by the end of the year.
“The argument is that we have completed our fourth cycle and are now working on our way on the fifth cycle. And within that fifth wave the argument is that we have completed our first wave, second wave, third wave and fourth wave, and we are going to get a little bump upside before this cycle absolutely tops out and bitcoin comes crashing down. …[There are] various reasons why I disagree with this.
The Elliott Wave theory is a form of technical analysis that looks for recurrent long-term price patterns related to persistent changes in investor sentiment and psychology. The theory identifies impulse waves that set up a pattern and corrective waves that oppose the larger trend.
The analyst suggests that we are currently entering the fourth wave that will take us into next year before bitcoin will ignite the fifth wave that will end closer to end of 2022 according to his chart.
“We have completed our first, we have completed our second, we have completed our third, and I think we are still working on our major forth before our final fifth. As oppose to the others who think we have completed our fourth and that we are already on our fifth, I think the fourth one is taking a longer amount of time … and the final blow of top is still yet to come.”
Credible Crypto also talks about return on investment (ROI), and argues that usually when an asset matures the ROI decreases, which tend to make the risk/reward lower and lengthen the cycle, which has historically happened.
“From through to peak of each of these cycles the ROI decreases. That is totally normal for any asset class as more investors enter the asset, the more less volatile it gets, the less risk has been taken […] The idea that we see ROI decreasing is totally normal, which is another reason why I […] think that in this cycle we are going to see a smaller ROI.
Next, lengthening cycle, meaning from every bottom to top we have taken a longer amount of time to compete […] The first major cycle from bottom to top took 280 days, the next major cycle took 742 days, the next cycle after correction 1,071 days. With each of these cycles we are seeing a lengthening amount of time and you can see that from the bottom of the last bear cycle to today it has been 1,071 days. [If we are done] it doesn’t line up historically.”
