If Bitcoin Keeps Following 2018 Fractal, It Will Rally Soon, Says Analyst
A leading crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, says that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently following a specific market structure from 2018 move by move.
In a recent video update, Cowen shared with the 744,000 subscribers to his YouTube channel that in January of 2018, Bitcoin formed higher lows between $9,000 and $11,000.
According to Cowen, BTC eventually gave in and fell down to around $5,800 level.
“You can see in 2018, we had a low, we had a higher low, we had this one – a pathetic attempt at a higher low. Ultimately put in a lower low and the back up to the trendline. Furthermore, it was a rejection off the 200-day simple moving average in between.”
The analyst notes that over the past couple of months, Bitcoin has been mirroring the 2018 market structure. BTC formed multiple higher lows between $30,000 to $39,000 from January to May before eventually correcting all the way down to $26,000, Cowen points out.
Should BTC actually follow the fractal, it could be in for a strong rally, the analyst says.
“What happened [back in 2018] is that we went back up to the trend line that held resistance because in bear markets trend lines tend to hold resistance. We also went back up to the 200-day moving average, so there was a little bit of confluence there between that trend line where we were putting in higher lows and the 200-day SMA.”
However, if we would hypothetically extend the current 200-day moving average to mid-June, Bitcoin would probably will sit somewhere between $40,000 and $42,000.
“With that in mind, we must wonder, ‘Well is that level important?’ And I would argue it’s very important. The $40,000 to $42,000 level carries a lot of weight with Bitcoin because that was where we first got rejected back in January of 2021. We got rejected by it in the summer of 2021 as well after we fell below it… So if the fractal is to play out – which, as always, is a big if – it would mean over the next several weeks, we could see that pump back up to approximately $40,000, plus or minus a couple thousand dollars.”
At the time of writing, BTC trades at $29,550, up 1.6% on the daily chart.
