Latest Market Overview 15th April: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, TON, DOGE, ADA
The Bitcoin market is encountering challenges in maintaining the recent relief rally, potentially exerting downward pressure on various alternative cryptocurrencies in the foreseeable future. Despite facing significant selling pressure last week, Bitcoin saw robust buying activity from bulls as it approached lower levels around $61,000. This indicates sustained positive sentiment among traders, who perceive downward fluctuations as buying opportunities.
Nevertheless, the selling pressure may persist. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, highlighted in a recent analysis that Bitcoin miners could sell off approximately $5 billion worth of Bitcoin within the next four to six months following the Bitcoin halving. Markus suggests that this substantial sell-off could keep Bitcoin trading “sideways for the next few months.”
A sideways market usually traps both the bulls and the bears by giving false breakouts in both directions. Therefore, traders need to be careful and not jump to buy or sell at the first instance. It is better to wait for the breakout to sustain before taking large bets.
What critical resistance levels must Bitcoin cross to suggest that the correction may end? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
S&P 500 Index (SPX) Market Analysis
The S&P 500 Index nose-dived to the 50-day simple moving average (5,115) on April 12, signalling that the bears are trying to take charge.
If the 50-day SMA gives way, the index could start a corrective phase. The first support on the downside is 4,900. A bounce off this level could face selling at the 20-day exponential moving average (5,174). If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the possibility of a drop below 4,900 increases.
To prevent the decline, buyers must push the price back above the 20-day EMA. The index could then attempt a rally to 5,265.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Market Analysis
The U.S. Dollar Index turned up from the 50-day SMA (104) on April 9 and rose above the 105 overhead resistance on April 10, completing an ascending triangle pattern.
The bulls have pushed the price to 106, where bears will likely pose a substantial challenge. If the price turns down from 106 but rebounds off 105, it will signal that the bulls have flipped the level into support. That will enhance the prospects of a rally to 107. The pattern target of the bullish setup is 109.
Conversely, if the price turns sharply and dives below 105, it will signal that the markets have rejected the breakout. The pair could then slide to the triangle’s uptrend line.
Bitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis
Bitcoin’s bounce off the $60,775 support has reached the moving averages, where the bears will likely mount a strong defence.
If the price turns down from the moving averages, the bears will again try to sink the BTC/USDT pair below $60,775. If this level gives way, it will signal the start of a deeper correction. The pair may drop to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $54,298.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks above the moving averages, it will suggest that the pair may extend its stay inside the $60,775 to $73,777 range for a few more days. A break and close above $73,777 will indicate the resumption of the uptrend to $80,000.
Ether (ETH) Market Analysis
The Ether market broke below the $3,056 support on April 13, but the bears could not build upon this breakdown. The bulls pushed the price back above $3,056 on April 14.
The recovery could reach the 20-day EMA ($3,369), a critical level to watch. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the ETH/USDT pair could drop to $3,056 and $2,852.
On the other hand, if buyers keep the price above $3,056, it will suggest that the range-bound action remains intact. The bulls will gain strength on a break above the 20-day EMA. The pair could then attempt a rally to $3,679. Buyers must clear this overhead hurdle to start an upmove toward $4,100.
BNB Price Analysis
BNB has been consolidating inside a large range between $495 and $635 for the past few days, indicating indecision about the next directional move.
The flattening 20-day EMA ($574) and the RSI near the midpoint do not clearly favor the bulls or the bears. If the price breaks and maintains above the 20-day EMA, the BNB/USDT pair may climb to $635. A break and close above this level will signal the start of the next leg of the uptrend to $692.
Contrarily, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears are selling on rallies. The pair could then drop to the support at $495.
Solana (SOL) Price Analysis
Solana turned down from the 20-day EMA ($167) on April 12 and plunged below the 50-day SMA ($164). The bears continued selling on April 13 and pulled the price to the crucial support at $126.
The long tail on the April 13 candlestick shows that the bulls fiercely attempt to defend the $126 level. Buyers will try to push the price to the moving averages, which will likely be a significant barrier.
If the price turns sharply from the moving averages, the bears will again try to sink the SOL/USDT pair below $126. If they succeed, the pair may drop to $100. This negative view will be invalidated soon if the price rises above the moving averages. The pair will then attempt a rally to $205.
XRP Price Analysis
XRP has been trading inside an extensive range between $0.41 and $0.74 for several months.
The price dropped near the range’s support on April 13, but the long tail on the candlestick shows strong buying at lower levels. The bulls are trying to start a relief rally, which will likely face resistance near the 20-day EMA ($0.57). If the price turns down from the current or 20-day EMA level, the bears will take another shot at $0.41.
Meanwhile, the bulls are likely to have other plans. They will try to maintain the price above $0.46 and push the XRP/USDT pair above the moving averages. That could keep the price inside the range for a while longer.
Toncoin (TON) Price Analysis
Toncoin (TON) continues to trade inside the ascending channel pattern, indicating an advantage to buyers.
The price has reached the channel’s resistance line, where the bears are expected to mount a strong defence. If the price turns down from the resistance line, the TON/USDT pair could drop to the support line. A break and close below the channel will signal a potential trend change.
On the contrary, if buyers thrust the price above the channel, it will suggest a pick-up in momentum. The pair could then attempt a rally to $8.56 and eventually to $10.
Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Analysis
Dogecoin sliced through the 50-day SMA ($0.17) support on April 13, indicating aggressive selling by the bears.
The bulls are trying to start a recovery, but they may face stiff resistance at the moving averages. If the price turns down from the moving averages, it will signal that the bears view the rallies as a selling opportunity. That will increase the likelihood of a drop to the strong support at $0.12.
Instead, if buyers drive the price above the moving averages, it will suggest solid demand at lower levels. The DOGE/USDT pair may then attempt a rally to $0.20.
Cardano (ADA) Price Analysis
Cardano plunged below the $0.57 support on April 12, completing the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. That was followed by another down day on April 13, which pulled the price below the $0.46 support.
A saving grace for the bulls is that the price climbed back above $0.46 on April 14, suggesting buying at lower levels. The bulls will try to start a recovery, which is likely to face strong selling at the 20-day EMA ($0.56).
If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the ADA/USDT pair could again drop to $0.46 and then to $0.40. A break below this level could sink the pair to $0.35. The first sign of strength will be a rise above the 20-day EMA.
