The stock market opened this week with a positive trend, and cryptocurrency prices followed suit.
After experiencing gains for two consecutive weeks, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) commenced the week on an optimistic note. This indicates a favourable risk appetite, which is an encouraging sign. It’s worth noting that volatility is expected to increase, as around 11% of the S&P 500 companies are slated to release their earnings reports this week.
The positive risk sentiment has the potential to stimulate interest in specific cryptocurrencies. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is one area demonstrating bullish activity. Grayscale’s recent legal victories have narrowed the discount on GBTC to its lowest level since 2021. This suggests that investors consider that the trust might eventually transition into a spot Bitcoin ETF.
When the price does not break below the market support levels on lousy news and rises above the overhead resistance on favourable news, it shows that the shorts are running low on confidence. This increases the likelihood of an up-move in the near term.
What are the critical overhead resistance levels on Bitcoin and altcoins need to be crossed to start an uptrend? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
S&P 500 Index (SPX) Market Analysis
The S&P 500 Index turned down from the 50-day simple moving average (4,401) on October 12, but the bears could not sink the price below the critical level of 4,325.
SPX daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day exponential moving average (4,341) is flattening out, and the relative strength index (RSI) is just above the midpoint, suggesting that bulls have a slight edge.
Buyers will try to thrust the price above the overhead resistance zone between the 50-day SMA and the downtrend line. If this zone is surmounted, the index will signal the end of the corrective phase.
Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below 4,325, it will indicate that bears are fiercely defending the 50-day SMA. The index may then retest the pivotal support at 4,216.
U.S. dollar Index (DXY) Market Analysis
The U.S. dollar index corrected from 107.34 on October 3 and dipped to the 20-day EMA ($106) on October 10. In an uptrend, traders generally buy the dips to the 20-day EMA.
DXY daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls also bought the dip to the 20-day EMA, which started a rebound. The bulls will try to push the price above the 107.34 to 108 resistance zone. If they succeed, the index could trigger a strong rally toward 111.
However, the bears are unlikely to give up easily. They will try to guard the overhead zone and tug the price below 105.50. If this support cracks, the index may dip to the 50-day SMA ($104.81). This is an essential level for the bulls to defend if they want to keep the up-move intact. Below this level, the index could fall to 103.
Bitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis
After trading between the moving market averages for the past few days, Bitcoin made a decisive move on October 16 when bulls kicked the price above the 20-day EMA ($27,224).
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The momentum increased, and the BTC/USDT pair skyrocketed above the $28,143 resistance. However, the euphoria was short-lived as the bears aggressively sold at higher levels and yanked the price below $28,143.
The 20-day EMA has started to turn up, and the RSI has jumped into positive territory, indicating that the bulls have a slight edge. If buyers achieve a close above $28,143, the pair may march toward $30,000 and then to $31,000.
On the downside, a break and close below the 50-day SMA ($26,715) will tilt the bear’s advantage. The pair may first plummet to $26,000 and then to $24,800.
Ether (ETH) price analysis
For several days, the Ether market has been oscillating between $1,531 and $1,746. Generally, traders buy near the support in a range and sell at the resistance.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Buyers purchased the dip to $1,521 on October 12, which started a relief rally. The bulls attempted to drive the price above the moving averages on October 16, but the long wick on the candlestick showed aggressive selling by the bears.
If the price turns down from the current level, the bears will make one more attempt to sink and sustain the price below $1,521. The ETH/USDT pair may collapse to $1,368 if they succeed.
Contrarily, the bulls will again attempt to push and sustain the price above the moving averages. The pair could jump to $1,746 if they can pull it off. This level is again likely to witness strong selling by the bears.
BNB price analysis
BNB rebounded off the strong support at $203 and nudged above the downtrend line on October 16. However, the long wick on the candlestick shows that the bears are selling on rallies.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA ($210) has flattened out, and the RSI is above the midpoint, suggesting that the bearish momentum is weakening.
The bulls will again try to exploit this situation and propel the price above the downtrend line. If they can maintain the higher levels, it will invalidate the bearish descending triangle pattern. The BNB/USDT pair may climb to $235 and later to $250.
This bullish view will be negated if the price turns down and plunges below the vital support at $203. The pair may then tumble to $183.
XRP price analysis
For the past several days, XRP has been stuck inside the extensive range between $0.41 and $0.56. The Bulls are trying to start a pullback, likely to face stiff resistance at the moving averages.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price turns down from the moving averages, it will suggest that every minor relief rally is being sold into. That will increase the possibility of a drop to $0.46. If this level fails to hold, the XRP/USDT pair may descend to $0.41.
Contrarily, if bulls thrust the price above the moving averages, it will indicate solid buying at lower levels. The pair will then attempt a rally to $0.56. The bears are expected to protect this level with vigour.
Solana (SOL) price analysis
Solana surged above the near-term resistance of $22.50 on October 16, indicating that the bulls are trying to take control.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls pushed the price to the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern but could not scale the level. This is a crucial resistance to watch because a close above it will complete the bullish setup. The SOL/USDT pair may start an up-move to $27.12 and later to the pattern target of $32.81.
Bears must quickly drag the price back below the 50-day SMA ($20.56) if they want to prevent the upside. The pair may then dip to $18.50.
Cardano (ADA) price analysis
Cardano bounced off the strong support near $0.24, indicating that the bulls are fiercely defending this level.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The immediate resistance on the upside is from the moving averages. Buyers tried to overcome this obstacle on October 16, but the long wick on the candlestick shows selling at higher levels. If bulls do not give up much ground from the current level, it will improve the prospects of a rally above $0.28. This level may again behave as a resistance, but if cleared, the ADA/USDT pair could reach $0.30.
The critical level to watch on the downside is $0.24. If the price turns down from the moving averages, it will increase the likelihood of a drop below $0.24. A break below this crucial support could sink the pair to $0.22 and $0.20.
Dogecoin (DOGE) price analysis
Dogecoin recovered to the breakdown of $0.06 on October 14, indicating that lower levels attract buyers.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA ($0.06) is flattening out, and the RSI is near the midpoint, signalling that the selling pressure could be reducing. If buyers drive and maintain the price above the moving averages, it will suggest the start of a new up-move to $0.07. This level may again act as a stiff hurdle, but if cleared, the DOGE/USDT pair could reach $0.08.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from the current level, it will suggest that the pair may extend its stay inside the $0.055 to $0.06 range for some more time.
Toncoin (TON) price analysis
Toncoin has been trading below the moving averages since October 12, but a positive sign is that the bears have not been able to capitalize on this weakness. This indicates a lack of selling at lower levels.
TON/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls tried to push the price back above the moving averages, but the long wick on the candlestick shows that the bears are in no mood to relent. Sellers will again try to sink the price below $1.89 and start a deeper correction. The following support on the downside is at $1.80 and then $1.60.
Bulls must push and sustain the price above the moving averages if they want to signal a comeback. The TON/USDT pair could rise to $2.20 and then to $2.31.
