Latest Market Overview 19th Aug: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, DOGE, TON, ADA

The S&P 500 Index is approaching its record high, while the Bitcoin market finds it difficult to surpass the $60,000 mark, indicating potential further underperformance in the short term.

Although Bitcoin has remained within a tight trading range for several months, this hasn’t deterred long-term holders. Glassnode’s hodl wave chart reveals that 74% of Bitcoin has remained untouched for at least six months.

Investors are keenly watching to see which direction Bitcoin will break out in. According to Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at the Nansen on-chain analytics platform, the crypto bull market could persist if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates while economic growth remains stable. However, if growth sharply slows, the potential for gains in risk assets may be limited.

In contrast, famous analyst Rekt Capital said in a post on X that Bitcoin could be “just over a month away from breakout” if it follows its historical pattern of starting its parabolic phase roughly 160 days after halving.

Could Bitcoin break above $60,000, or will it slump to $55,724 soon? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.

S&P 500 Index (SPX) Market Analysis

The S&P 500 Index continued its V-shaped recovery last week, indicating solid buying by the bulls. The rally above the moving averages suggests that the correction is over.

There is minor resistance at 5,585, where the bears will try to stall the up move. The moving averages will likely act as solid support if the price turns down from the overhead resistance. If the price turns up from the moving averages, it will increase the possibility of a rally to 5,670.

Bears must quickly yank the price back below the moving averages if they want to prevent the upside. That could open the doors for a fall to 5,265. Such a move could suggest a range-bound action between 5,119 and 5,585 in the near term.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Market Analysis

The US Dollar Index (DXY) tried to start a recovery but turned down from the 20-day exponential moving average (103.27) on Aug. 15. This shows that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.

The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI near the oversold territory suggest that the path of least resistance is to the downside. There is support at 101.90, from which the bulls may try to start a relief rally, but the up move will likely face selling at the 20-day EMA. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the likelihood of a drop to 101 increases.

This negative view will be invalidated soon if the price rises and breaks above the 20-day EMA. That could clear the path for a rally to 103.50 and then to the 50-day simple moving average (104.43).

Bitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis

For the past few days, Bitcoin has been oscillating between the 50-day SMA ($61,425) and the $55,724 support level.

The downsloping 20-day EMA ($59,908) and the RSI just below the midpoint indicate a minor advantage to the bears. Bulls must kick the price above the 50-day SMA if they want to seize control. If they do that, the BTC/USDT pair is expected to rise to $65,660 and then to $70,000.

Instead, if the price turns down from the current level or the moving averages, the bears will again try to sink and sustain the pair below $55,724. If they succeed, the pair may plunge to $49,000.

Ether (ETH) Market Analysis

Ether turned up from the $2,500 support on Aug. 15, but the bulls are having trouble pushing the price above the 20-day EMA ($2,729).

If the price turns down from the current level, the ETH/USDT pair will likely break below $2,500. The pair may slump to $2,309, where the bulls will again try to arrest the decline.

Contrarily, if buyers kick the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rise to the breakdown level of $2,850. This level is again expected to attract sellers, but if the bulls prevail, it will suggest that the downtrend may be over.

Solana (SOL) Price Analysis

The long wick on Solana’s Aug. 18 candlestick shows that the Bears are defending the 20-day EMA ($148).

The bears will try to strengthen their position by pulling the price below $136. If they do that, the SOL/USDT pair could drop to the crucial support at $116. This is a critical level to watch, as a strong bounce-off will signal that the pair may extend its stay inside the range for some more time.

On the upside, a break above the moving averages could push the price to $164. This level may act as a resistance, but if the buyers overcome it, the pair could reach $185.

BNB Price Analysis

BNB has reached the downtrend line, an essential short-term resistance to watch out for.

The flattish 20-day EMA ($529) and the RSI near the midpoint suggest that the selling pressure is reducing. Buyers will try to build upon their position by pushing the price above the downtrend line. If they can pull it off, the BNB/USDT pair may attempt a rally to $600.

This optimistic view will be invalidated soon if the price turns sharply from the downtrend line and closes below the 20-day EMA. The bears then try to sink the pair to the $495 support.

XRP Price Analysis

After trading near the 20-day EMA ($0.57) for the past few days, XRP is trying to resume its up move.

Bullish momentum could pick up if buyers sustain the price above $0.59, propelling the price to overhead resistance at $0.64. Sellers are expected to defend this level with all their might because if they fail to do so, the XRP/USDT pair may climb to the next hurdle at $0.74.

On the downside, the 50-day SMA ($0.54) is solid support. If this level cracks, the pair may plunge to $0.50.

Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Analysis

The bulls struggle to push Dogecoin above the 20-day EMA ($0.10), indicating demand dries up at higher levels.

The failure to rise higher may increase the selling pressure by the bears, who will try to sink the price below $0.09. If they manage to do that, the DOGE/USDT pair could decline to the support line near $0.08.

On the contrary, if the price rises and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls are in the driver’s seat. The pair may then attempt a rally to the downtrend line. Buyers will have to overcome this barrier to signal a potential trend change.

Toncoin price (TON) Analysis

The bulls pushed Toncoin above the 50-day SMA ($6.84) on Aug. 18 but failed to achieve a close above it.

The bears pulled the price back below the 50-day SMA on Aug. 19, indicating they were selling at higher levels. Buyers are expected to defend the 20-day EMA ($6.52) vigorously. If the price turns up from the current level or the 20-day EMA, it will signal buying on dips. That will improve the prospects of a rally above the 50-day SMA. The TON/USDT pair may then climb to $7.65.

Conversely, a break and close below $6 will signal that the bulls have given up. That may increase selling and pull the pair to $5.26.

Cardano (ADA) Price Analysis

Cardano continues to trade below the 20-day EMA ($0.34), indicating that the bears are fiercely defending the level.

The selling could accelerate if bears sink the price below $0.31. The ADA/USDT pair could then tumble to $0.27 and eventually to the crucial support at $0.24. This level is likely to attract solid buying by the bulls.

A break and close above the 20-day EMA will be the first sign that the Bulls are on a comeback. The pair may rise to the 50-day SMA ($0.38) and later to the downtrend line. Buyers must clear this hurdle to signal the start of a new move.

Source – Rakesh Upadhyay