Latest Market Overview 30th Sep: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, DOGE, TON, ADA

The Bitcoin market and altcoins are experiencing volatility at the end of the month, but traders remain optimistic about October, largely due to the crypto market’s track record of strong performance in the fourth quarter.

Bitcoin has faced fluctuations, succumbing to selling pressure on 30th September, dropping below $64,000. Despite this pullback, it remains on course for its best monthly performance in September, surpassing the 6.04% increase recorded in 2016, according to data from CoinGlass.

Traders are likely to maintain a positive outlook as Bitcoin enters Q4, as October has historically been a strong month, with an average rise of 22.90% and a median increase of 27.70%. If these trends hold true, a new all-time high could be reached in the coming months.

ZX Squared Capital chief investment officer CK Zheng told Cointelegraph that the United States presidential election is another bullish trigger for Bitcoin as both the Republican and Democratic parties have failed to “appropriately address the ever-increasing US debts and deficits during this election.”

Interestingly, Bitcoin rallied 168% in the fourth quarter of 2020, which witnessed the halving event and the US presidential elections.

Could Bitcoin and altcoins rally sharply in October? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.

S&P 500 Index (SPX) Market Analysis

The S&P 500 Index has been maintaining above the breakout level of 5,670, but the up-move lacks momentum. This shows hesitation in continuing to buy at higher levels.

The price could correct to 5,670, which is likely to act as a strong support. If the price rebounds off 5,670 with strength, it will signal that the bulls have flipped the level into support. That will improve the prospects of a rally to 6,000.

Instead, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day exponential moving average (5,653), it will suggest profit-booking by the short-term traders. If this support also cracks, the index could plummet to the uptrend line. This is a crucial level to watch out for because a break below it could accelerate selling.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Market Analysis

The bears have repeatedly stalled recovery attempts at the 20-day exponential moving average (100.99), indicating that the US Dollar Index remains in a downtrend.

Sellers will try to strengthen their position by pulling the price to the critical support at 99.57. This level had previously acted as a solid support, hence the bulls will again try to defend it aggressively. If the price rebounds off 99.57 but fails to break above the 20-day EMA, it will signal that the bears continue to sell on rallies. That will increase the risk of break below 99.57.

If buyers want to prevent the downside, they will have to push and maintain the price above the 20-day EMA. The upside could pick up momentum above 102.

Bitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis

Bitcoin closed above $65,000 on Sept. 26, but the failure to push the price higher attracted profit booking by short-term traders. That has pulled the price back below the breakout level on Sept. 30.

The 20-day EMA ($62,722) is the crucial level for the bulls to defend. If the price bounces off the 20-day EMA, the buyers will try to kick the price above $66,500. If they can pull it off, the BTC/USDT pair may jump to $70,000.

Conversely, a break below the 20-day EMA will signal that the bullish momentum is weakening. The pair could then drop to the 50-day SMA ($60,300). That could keep the pair inside the $54,000 to $65,000 range for some time.

Ether (ETH) Price Analysis

The bulls could not thrust and maintain Ether above the resistance line on Sept. 27, indicating that the bears are defending the level.

The price is currently stuck between the 20-day EMA ($2,559) and the resistance line. This tight-range trading is unlikely to continue for long. If the price resolves to the upside, the ETH/USDT pair could rise to $2,850 and, after that, to $3,400.

This optimistic view will be negated in the near term if the price continues lower and breaks below the moving averages. That may keep the pair inside the symmetrical triangle pattern for a few more days.

BNB Price Analysis

BNB turned down from $618 on Sept. 28, indicating that the traders are selling near the overhead resistance of $635.

The price has reached the 20-day EMA ($575), an important level to watch out for. If the price rises sharply from the 20-day EMA, the bulls will make one more attempt to clear the overhead hurdle. If they manage to do that, the BNB/USDT pair could surge to $722.

On the other hand, if the price closes below the 20-day EMA, it will signal that the bulls have given up. That could keep the pair stuck inside the $460 to $635 range for some more time.

Solana (SOL) Price Analysis

The bulls are struggling to propel Solana above the $164 overhead resistance, indicating selling on rallies.

A minor positive for the bulls is that they have not ceded much ground to the bears. The rising 20-day EMA ($147) and the RSI in the positive territory suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If bulls push the price above $164, the SOL/USDT pair could rally to $188.

Contrarily, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the pair may continue to range between $116 and $164 for a while.

XRP Price Analysis

XRP rose above the $0.64 resistance on Sept. 29, but the long wick on the candlestick shows the bears are selling on rallies.

The bulls again attempted to maintain the price above $0.64 on Sept. 30, but the bears did not relent. This suggests that the markets have rejected the breakout. The XRP/USDT pair could plunge to the 20-day EMA ($0.59).

If the price turns up from the current level or the 20-day EMA with strength, it will suggest that the bulls remain buyers on dips. Buyers will have to kick the price above $0.66 to clear the path for a rally to $0.74.

Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Analysis

Dogecoin’s recovery is facing selling at $0.13, which has pulled the price to the breakout level near $0.12.

The 20-day EMA ($0.11) has started to turn up, and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating a minor advantage for the bulls. If the price bounces off the 20-day EMA and rises above $0.13, the DOGE/USDT pair could reach $0.14. This level may act as a resistance, but if cleared, the rally could reach $0.18.

On the contrary, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears are active at higher levels. That may lead to a possible range formation between $0.09 and $0.13 for a few days.

Toncoin (TON) Price Analysis

Toncoin is facing selling above $6, but a positive sign is that the bulls have not allowed the price to slip below the moving averages.

If the price turns up from the moving averages and breaks above $6, it will signal the start of a move to $7. The bears may pose a strong challenge at $7, but if the bulls prevail, the rally could stretch to $8.29.

This positive view will be invalidated soon if the TON/USDT pair plummets below the moving averages and the $5.37 support. That could open the doors for a drop to the $4.72 to $4.44 support zone.

Cardano (ADA) Price Analysis

Cardano rose above the $0.40 resistance on Sept. 27, but the long wick on the candlestick shows strong selling at higher levels.

The price has turned down toward the 20-day EMA ($0.37). If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA with strength, the bulls will again attempt to drive the ADA/USDT pair above $0.40. If they succeed, the pair may climb to $0.46. Buyers must overcome this barrier to signal the start of a new up move.

Alternatively, if the price skids below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the pair may extend its stay inside the $0.31 to $0.40 range for some more time.

Source – Rakesh Upadhyay