Bitcoin’s failure to hold $100,000 could attract profit booking from traders. Which altcoins will follow BTC’s market downtrend?
Bitcoin has recently retreated to approximately $98,000, suggesting that bears are strongly defending the $100,000 threshold. In a post on X, CryptoQuant contributor Maartuun noted that long-term holders have sold 827,783 Bitcoin since 8 November. He also pointed out several other indicators that imply Bitcoin might be nearing a peak.
Despite this, MicroStrategy, one of the largest corporate Bitcoin holders, remains undeterred in expanding its holdings. The company announced that it acquired 21,550 Bitcoin between 2 and 8 December at an average price of $98,783. Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy’s co-founder and former CEO, told Yahoo Finance that he plans to continue “buying the top forever.”
It is not only MicroStrategy that has been buying Bitcoin. CoinShares report shows that cryptocurrency investment products set a new record of $3.85 billion in inflows during the 2nd and 6th of December.
S&P 500 Index (SPX) Market Analysis
The S&P 500 Index market has formed a rising wedge pattern, which is usually considered a bearish setup.
SPX daily chart. Source: TradingView
However, if buyers drive the price above the resistance line of the wedge, it will invalidate the bearish setup. The failure of a bearish pattern is a bullish sign. That could propel the index to 6,221 and, after that, to 6,500.
Instead, if the price turns down from the current level, it will signal that the bears are selling near the resistance line. The index may drop to the 20-day exponential moving average (5,996) and then to the support line. A break and close below the support line will tilt the advantage in favor of the bears.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Market Analysis
The US dollar Index market is witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the 20-day EMA (105.96).
DXY daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price plummets below 105.42, the index may fall to the 50-day simple moving average (104.69). The bulls will try to defend the 50-day SMA because a break and close below it will bring the large 101 to 108 range into play.
If bulls want to assert their supremacy, they will have to push the price above 106.73. If they do that, the index could retest the overhead resistance at 108. The bulls may find it challenging to overcome the barrier at 108, but if they can pull it off, the rally could reach 114.
Bitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis
Bitcoin’s repeated failure to maintain above the psychologically critical level of $100,000 may result in a pullback to the 20-day EMA ($95,673).
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
A strong rebound off the 20-day EMA will suggest that the bulls remain in command and every minor dip is being purchased. That will increase the possibility of a retest of the all-time high at $104,088. A break and close above $104,088 could start the next leg of the uptrend to $113,331 and later to $125,000.
Conversely, if the price continues lower and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls are booking profits. The BTC/USDT pair may drop to $90,000 and eventually to the 50-day SMA ($84,719).
Ether (ETH) Price Analysis
Ether turned down from $4,094 on Dec. 6, indicating that the bears are fiercely defending the level.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Sellers will try to pull the price to the 20-day EMA ($3,633), which is a crucial near-term support to watch out for. If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA with force, it will signal a positive sentiment. That will improve the prospects of a break above $4,094. If that happens, the ETH/USDT pair may rally to $4,500.
If bears want to prevent the upmove, they will have to tug the price below the 20-day EMA. That may tempt short-term buyers to book profits, resulting in a fall to the downtrend line.
XRP Price Analysis
XRP’s bounce fizzled out at $2.64 on Dec. 8, indicating that the bears are selling on relief rallies.
The bears will try to strengthen their position by pulling the price to the 20-day EMA ($1.99). If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA with strength, the bulls may again attempt to push the XRP/USDT pair toward $2.91.
Contrarily, a break and close below the 20-day EMA will signal that the bulls are rushing to the exit. That suggests the pair may have topped out in the near term. The pair could descend to $1.90 and later to $1.68.
Solana (SOL) Price Analysis
Solana turned down from the overhead resistance of $248 and dipped below the 20-day EMA ($232).
The flattening 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) near the midpoint suggest a possible range formation in the near term. The SOL/USDT pair could drop to $210, where buyers are expected to step in. If the price rebounds off $210, the pair may rise to $248 and remain between these two levels for some time.
Buyers will have to propel the price above the $248 to $264 resistance zone to seize control. On the downside, a break and close below $210 could suggest that the Bears are back in the game.
BNB Price Analysis
The bulls are finding it difficult to sustain BNB above the crucial level of $722, indicating selling on rallies.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price maintains below $722, the BNB/USDT pair could decline to the 20-day EMA ($685). Buyers are expected to defend this level with all their might because a break below it could weaken the bullish momentum. The pair may descend to the 50-day SMA ($629).
On the contrary, if the price turns up from the current level or the 20-day EMA, it will signal demand at lower levels. The bulls will then again attempt to thrust the price above $794. If this level is taken out, the pair may skyrocket to $861.
Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Analysis
The bulls tried to push Dogecoin above $0.48 on Dec. 8, but the bears held their ground.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The upsloping 20-day EMA ($0.41) and the RSI in the positive zone indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers propel the price above $0.48, the likelihood of a rally above the channel’s resistance line increases. The DOGE/USDT pair could jump to $0.60.
This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the channel. That could accelerate selling and pull the price to $0.33.
Cardano (ADA) Price Analysis
The long tail on Cardano’s Dec. 9 candlestick shows that the bulls are trying to defend the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $1.10.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Buyers will have to drive the ADA/USDT pair above the $1.25 to $1.33 resistance zone to signal the resumption of the uptrend. The pair could surge to $1.64, which is expected to act as a stiff resistance.
On the downside, sellers will have to sink the price below the 20-day EMA ($1.05) to gain the upper hand. The pair could then plunge to $0.87. Such a deep fall could delay the start of the next leg of the uptrend.
Avalanche (AVAX) Price Analysis
Avalanche tried to resume the up move on Dec. 8, but the bears pulled the price back below the breakout level of $51 on Dec. 9.
AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If sellers sustain the price below $51, the AVAX/USDT pair could drop to the 20-day EMA ($46.18). A strong bounce off the 20-day EMA will signal buying on dips. The bulls will then make one more attempt to push the pair above $56. If they do that, the pair may climb to $60 and subsequently to $65.
Alternatively, a break and close below the 20-day EMA will suggest that the bulls are losing their grip. The pair may then slump to $38.
