Nicholas Merten Predicts Bitcoin Price Increase Based On On-Chain Metrics
According to Nicholas Merten, a top crypto market analyst and trader, there is an on-chain metric that explains what’s feeding the current uptrend of the leading crypto asset, Bitcoin (BTC).
In a recent video, Merten shares with his 473K YouTube subscribers that Bitcoin investors are not selling their coins, but are holding them for longer periods of time. He says that Bitcoin is on track to make new all-time high and go further to new price discovery.
“The reason market prices generally go up or generally go down is inflows and outflows, and if we can know there are more people eager to market sell or market buy, we can generally know the direction the price is going to go, and we’re able to spot the trend much, much simpler.
We have set up the foundation here for Bitcoin to start chartering up to all-time highs here in the near future. It really could be this month, if the momentum keeps going strong. But I really want to keep my estimates as conservative as possible here, and I’d like to assume that we’re going to see something probably within a month, a month and a half, two months, three months.”
Regardless of lack of Bitcoin related news, the price of the leading crypto has been climbing up, the trader points out.
Merten is looking at HODL waves metric, which present a macro view of the age distribution of the coin supply and provides insight into changes to this age distribution arising from holding and spending behaviour. Thickness of HODL wave bands represents the proportion of the total coin supply that is categorised into that age band.
On-chain data is public and allows anyone to verify how long a buyer has kept BTC in their possession. According to the data aggregate BTC is being held for longer periods of time, Merten points out.
“They’re not moving within a 24-hour period, they’re not moving within a one-day to one-week period, a week-to-monthly period. They’re really starting to be held for longer periods of time.
We can see on-chain that general trend that there are more and more people who are taking that long-term approach. They’re not going to have any impact on the sell side, at least not for a long period of time.”
Looking at the on-chain data, the analyst remains confident that BTC will break six-digits eventually.
“So we’re in October. We were hoping by the end of this year that we would see a rise back up to previous all-time highs of 65k, and then set the stage to continue climbing higher and make new all-time highs in price, and eventually charter towards six-digit territory at 100k, and with our most euphoric estimate being $200,000 in this cycle.
