PlanB: Bitcoin S2F Model At A Crucial Level of Support
Quantitative analyst PlanB, who is credited for being the first to apply Stock-to-flow (S2F) model in Bitcoin, says his price prediction model is at a crucial level of support.
The stock-to-flow (S2F) model, which is traditionally used to measure and predict the performance of commodities such as precious metals, compares an asset’s price to its available supply.
PlanB has surged in popularity amid the accuracy of the S2F and the S2FX, a variation of the S2F, which also takes into account gold and silver’s performance to reach a price estimation for Bitcoin.
The widely-followed analyst tells his 536,400 twitter followers that BTC just bounced off the lower band of the S2F model.
According to PlanB’s model, Bitcoin will reach $100,000. S2FX model predicts that Bitcoin to go as high as $288,000 within this bull cycle.
2nd bounce off the lower band of S2F model. Will S2F break? Or will this turn out to be an excellent buy signal? I know multiple hedge funds that actually trade this BTC-S2F "cointegration" (despite that we can't formally use cointegration tests because S2F ratio isn't random). https://t.co/lnnN6H7OL6pic.twitter.com/qC3ULXlSlI
PlanB asks his followers through a Twitter poll, if they believe that the charts indicate that Bitcoin is going to prove the S2F hypothesis wrong, or if the charts are showing incredible buy signals.
According to poll only 17.6% of participants believe that S2F will break, 53.3% believe this is a buy signal and 29% of participants just wanted to see the poll results.
So, will Stock-to-Flow model break, or will this turn out to be an excellent buy signal?
PlanB says that while the S2F model is pushing the limits, the S2FX model is fully intact, and that Bitcoin is still in a bull market despite BTC’s recent price dip last month.
?New dot: May close $37,341.. -35% .. we knew #bitcoin would not go up in a straight line and several -35% drops are possible (and indeed likely) in a bull market. Starting to look like 2013. S2F(X) model intact. pic.twitter.com/Yu3PAplex5
“May close $37,341… -35% … we knew Bitcoin would not go up in a straight line and several -35% drops are possible (and indeed likely) in a bull market. Starting to look like 2013. S2FX model intact.”
PlanB has previously noted that he’s not personally that concerned on short-term price action, but he has high confidence in the long-term valuation of the number one crypto.
“I am less interested in $100K-$288K, but focused on 2024 halving and beyond. I don’t care about volatility, asymmetric return is key ($0 vs. $1 million).”
