Raoul Pal: Bottom Is In For Crypto Market, And It’s Ready To Move Up
According to Raoul Pal, an investment strategist and the CEO of Real Vision, crypto markets have likely bottomed out, and that there are triggers that could set up the next industry-wide up move.
Pal recently spoke with Layah Heilpurn, and opined that various developments have filled the crypto industry with negative sentiment – however, the markets have given in. According to the macro economist, this could be a signal that the bottom is in.
“The balance of probabilities is that we made the low last year, we retested the low this year and I think the low is in.
I think we’ve thrown a war, 8.5% inflation, the Fed raising interest rates all at crypto, we’ve thrown the Chinese ban, we’ve thrown so much at it and didn’t make a new low. Usually, that’s usually a signal the market has found its bottom.”
According to the Real Vision CEO, a period of economic slowdown could trigger the next big bull run in crypto.
“Now we’re looking for the upside catalysts. The upside catalyst would be if economic growth starts slowing. We’re likely to then see long-duration assets, things that tend to outperform in low growth environments, and crypto tends to do very well in that kind of environment, much like Cathie Wood’s ARK does, those kinds of longer term assets. So that’s what we’re looking for as the spark, a change in structure so people fear inflation less and start fearing growth more.”
Pal argues that a BTC halvings driven four-year cycle trend is now over.
“I think [4-year cycles] are over because the market is much larger than it was and Bitcoin is not as dominant so at the margin, the four-year cycle will have an impact but not as large an impact. For example, the ETH 2.0 thing is going to create a potential dynamic that’s different, so I think the cycles have changed and I think over time, these very volatile trends get less volatile and we saw that with Amazon in its early days. It’s the same with crypto now, there’s 300 million people using it now so what’s happening is the volatility dampens.”
