OpenAICEOSam Altman has laid out an ambitious roadmap for the future of artificial intelligence (AI), asserting that the era of “superintelligence” is just a few thousand days away. In his latest manifesto, The Intelligence Age, Altman predicts that AI will revolutionise society in ways that “would have seemed like magic to our grandparents.” The transformation, he argues, will come gradually but profoundly, enhancing the tools available to humanity and pushing the boundaries of what we can accomplish.
“We’ll soon be able to work with AI that helps us accomplish much more than we ever could without it,” Altman explains, anticipating a future where individuals have access to virtual teams of AI experts capable of handling complex tasks in various fields, from education to healthcare. According to Altman, AI will enable a level of shared prosperity that is “unimaginable today,” even predicting astounding triumphs like “fixing the climate” and “establishing a space colony.”
The Role of Deep Learning
Altman attributes much of this upcoming leap in capability to deep learning. As he succinctly put it, “Deep learning worked.” Over the past decade, this technology has made rapid advancements, with Altman noting that AI has steadily improved with greater access to data and computational resources. “The more compute and data available, the better it gets at helping people solve hard problems,” he said.
Much like Moore’s Law in chipmaking, Altman’s declaration — termed “Sam’s Law” — points to a future where AI becomes exponentially more capable. He emphasises the importance of continuing to scale up resources to support AI’s development, noting, “We need to drive down the cost of compute and make it abundant, or AI will become a limited resource, mostly for the rich.”
AI’s Potential and Risks
While Altman’s vision is optimistic, he is clear-eyed about the challenges ahead. He warns that the rapid evolution of AI could result in significant disruptions in various sectors, including the labour market. However, Altman is confident that AI will not render human jobs obsolete but will instead lead to shifts in the types of work people engage in. “Most jobs will change more slowly than most people think,” he said, but emphasised that humans will always have the innate desire to create and contribute.
Despite the potential for negative impacts, Altman remains resolute in his belief that AI will ultimately deliver extraordinary benefits. “With nearly limitless intelligence and abundant energy, we can do quite a lot,” he wrote. However, he has also joined other tech leaders in advocating for a balanced approach to AI, urging policymakers to work on maximising its benefits while minimising its harms.
Criticism and Caution
Not everyone shares Altman’s unbridled enthusiasm. Some experts, like Noam Chomsky and Rodney Brooks, remain sceptical of the notion that AI will surpass human intelligence. They argue that generative AI, while impressive, remains fundamentally limited and that its potential to completely reshape society is overstated.
However, the success of OpenAI’s ChatGPT — which became a household name in under two years — suggests that AI is already deeply embedded in everyday life. With the rise of competing AI models from companies like Google, Meta, and Anthropic, the race to innovate in AI continues unabated. Altman’s declaration that “astounding triumphs” are on the horizon is certainly consistent with the rapid advances already being made.
Conclusion: An Age of Endless Possibilities?
Sam Altman’s Intelligence Age paints a compelling picture of a future driven by AI, one in which humanity’s collective intelligence is augmented to previously unimagined heights. While there are valid concerns about the implications of AI for the economy and society, Altman’s conviction is clear: if we can navigate the risks, the opportunities for progress and prosperity are boundless.
