Top Analyst Specifics: One Catalyst to Make BTC Bullish Again
A crypto expert suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) may stay mired in a gloomy market until the Federal Reserve reverses its hawkish stance.
Kevin Svenson informs his 70,000 YouTube followers in a new strategy session that there seems to be a good link between the S&P 500 stock market (SPX) and Bitcoin’s price performance.
“Whenever there’s stock market volatility, Bitcoin’s in a strict downtrend. Even when the stock market is unstable and it’s seeing higher highs, lower-lows Bitcoin does not find support on those bounces. It’s just in a strict downtrend. People are very hesitant to bullishly bet on Bitcoin when the stock market is volatile.
Even when the stock market is going up, Bitcoin just can’t catch that support. And here we are guys, once again, the stock market volatile, increasing bear speculation. And we’re just not finding support. Even on the bounces, when the S&P 500 is bouncing, Bitcoin is just not finding support.”
Since the US Federal Reserve’s hawkish posture has contributed to a bearish or turbulent stock market, Svenson argues that a Fed reversal is required for Bitcoin to become bullish once again.
“There’s going to have to be a pretty big catalyst to get this market to shift. And I think that the market is waiting for a true fed pivot. So it may only be until sometime next year when we really start to change the trend, where we really start to get bullish again.
Until then, we might just go sideways guys. It might be a whole lot of nothing for Bitcoin for the next several months. I’m not saying I’m super bearish. I’m not saying I’m super bullish. I’m literally telling you, probably nothing is going to happen for several months here. Yeah, Bitcoin can still go down a little bit more. I guess that’s possible. But I really just expect Bitcoin to kind of play out some kind of long-term bottom formation and sort of recover next year.”
Using historical time periods between negative and bullish cycles, Svenson predicts that the next bullish cycle will begin in April of next year. According to him, one cycle peaked on December 17, 2017, and a bullish reversal took 68 weeks. He forecasts that 75 weeks will pass between the cycle’s peak on November 10, 2021 and the subsequent bullish pivot.
“And why do I say April? We talked about this in the last couple of updates. We demonstrated the standard Bitcoin cycle. The bull market only really begins when you get above that downward-sloping red resistance line. That’s when the bullish pivot begins. But we’re still far away. In theory, it’s April.
It’s April, guys. So we have so many months of just boring sideways, maybe a little bit further down, but mostly sideways, price action. That’s what I think is ahead of us until we get into early mid-next year. And then things can start getting bullish again.”
