PlanB Predicts Bitcoin Market Cap To Exceed Gold Before Next Halving
One of the most well-known crypto analyst and trader, PlanB, predicts the timing for Bitcoin’s (BTC) market cap could flip more traditional assets such as gold and real estate.
Discussing Bitcoin market with Will Clemente and fellow analyst and trader Willy Woo, PlanB said that BTC’s market cap could land somewhere between gold and real estate by the next halving.
A halving occurs when the reward for mining BTC is reduced to half, therefore making new coins coming to the market in theory double in price. The next two halvings are likely to happen in 2024 and 2028.
Gold being a $10 trillion and real estate a $100 trillion market, PlanB’s assumption would place Bitcoin somewhere in between in the next three years, assuming the halving schedule holds.
“After the next halving, or really this halving, we should get really close to the gold market cap.
And after the next halving, it would really surprise me if an asset that is recognized by the market as a store of value, that has more than a trillion dollars in value, if that store of value, with a bigger scarcity than gold, would not at least be valued higher than gold.
So somewhere between gold and real estate – $10 trillion and $100 trillion, roughly.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s market cap is approximately $1.27 trillion.
The top crypto analyst believes that the next halving could be a catalyst that really makes Bitcoin as a scarce store of value in the eyes of the wider investment community.
“…I think that the halving still will be an impulse for investors because they will recognize and see Bitcoin for what it is – a really scarce asset, and valuable.”
His forecasts are based on stock-to-flow (S2F) trading model, which traditionally has been used in commodities to attempt to predict the price by measuring the amount of new supply entering the market compared to the amount of already existing supply. PlanB, with vast experience in traditional finance, was the first analyst to have applied the stock-to-flow model principals to Bitcoin.
Based on S2F, PlanB sees an even bigger future for Bitcoin going beyond the next halving.
“I do think if the stock-to-flow of Bitcoin will be bigger than even real estate – so above 100, and that basically is the case after the next halving – and certainly after the halving in 2028. But let’s say 2024, when we go over real estate, then it will be the most portable, most divisible, more fungible, and also the most scarce asset on the planet.
I think investors will see that, and that combination will probably mean that people are going to see Bitcoin not as a store of value but as in money. And that will trigger the hyper-Bitcoinization.”
Bitcoin broke new all-time high of $67,826.72, and at the time of writing is trading at $67,749, according to CoinGecko.
